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THE MIND UNLEASHED)
CONVERSATION) — 2019 may well go down as the most disrupted year in global politics since the
fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 and the subsequent
implosion of the former Soviet Union.
However, the likelihood is that 2020 will be worse, and bloodier.
Conditions that spawned global unrest on every continent in 2019 are unlikely to recede. Rather, they are likely to worsen in the face of a
slowing global economy and little sign of causes of disaffection being addressed.
WASHINGTON AS DISRUPTOR
In a word, the world is in a mess, made more threatening by the retreat of the Trump administration from America’s traditional role as a stabilising force.
If anything, Washington is a disruptor in its abandonment of international agreements. These include: the
Paris Agreement on climate change and the
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership, previously the Trans Pacific Partnership, aimed at liberalising Asia-Pacific trade. The US has also withdrawn from the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that froze Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Washington’s defenestration of the JCPOA and its reimposition of tough sanctions on Iran has further destabilised the world’s most volatile region.
All this and more, including an unresolved
trade conflict between the US and China, virtually guarantees 2020 will stretch the sinews of a fragile global order.
An evolving US-China
technology war and risks of a technological decoupling add to the gloom.
THE WORLD IS IN WORSE SHAPE THAN DURING THE GFC
